Since François Bayrou’s announcement that a vote of confidence would be held at the start of the new parliamentary term on September 8, a number of different scenarios have been put forward: should the result of the vote be negative, one of them would be for Emmanuel Macron to dissolve the National Assembly. Against this backdrop, Ifop for Le Figaro questioned the French on their voting intentions, should new legislative elections be held.
In the event of a dissolution, the RN and its allies would be in the lead (between 32 and 33% of voting intentions depending on the hypothesis), with a slight drop compared to June 2024 (35%). They would retain a large part of their electoral base: 85% of their June 2024 voters would repeat their vote. A real “catch-all”, Le RN and their allies would appeal to 34% of working people, 33% of retirees, 42% of employees, 40% of blue-collar workers and 28% of managers and higher intellectual professions.
Reconquête, for its part, would garner between 3.5% and 4% of voting intentions.
In the event of a new union of the left, as in 2024, the NFP would be credited with 25% of voting intentions. The alliance of leftists would then be in the lead, particularly among managers and higher intellectual professions (31%), intermediate professions (34%) and young people (39%).
If the left were divided into two blocs, LFI and the Ecologists would obtain 11% of voting intentions, compared with 15% for the PS, PCF and Place publique alliance; the central bloc would obtain 15% of voting intentions: an electoral balance of power rather similar to the 2024 European elections.
The central bloc, with 15% of voting intentions, would record a 3-point drop compared to June 2024. This decline can be explained in particular by the shift of central bloc voters to LR, which would have 13% of voting intentions – an increase of 4 points compared to June 2024.
