Ifop-Fiducial have published a new poll for Sud Radio and L’Opinion on voting intentions for the next presidential election. This survey marks a turning point: it highlights a reshuffling of the balance of power, with a clear weakening of the candidates from the central bloc and the Rassemblement National’s now-established dominance.
In all the scenarios tested, Jordan Bardella and Marine Le Pen came out well ahead, with 33% to 35% of voting intentions, a lead of 17 to 20 points over their opponents. In particular, they would score over 40% among craftsmen and shopkeepers, blue-collar workers, unqualified voters and residents of rural communities.
Conversely, the results would confirm the strong weakening of the central bloc, weakened by the rejection of Emmanuel Macron’s policies and by the current political and institutional crisis. Édouard Philippe would garner between 16% and 19%, Gabriel Attal 10%, Gérald Darmanin 7% and François Bayrou 3%. This weakening would reflect a real desertion of Emmanuel Macron’s electorate in 2022: less than one in two voters would now turn to Édouard Philippe (47%), while support would be even more dispersed for Gabriel Attal (36%), Gérald Darmanin (21%) and François Bayrou (10%).
The main beneficiary of this weakening would be Raphaël Glucksmann, who would obtain between 14% and 16% of voting intentions. Jean-Luc Mélenchon would garner between 12% and 13%, regaining one in two voters from his 2022 base. With Raphaël Glucksmann trailing him by 1 to 3 points, he would nevertheless retain a 6-point lead over a possible candidacy by Olivier Faure.
Lastly, on the Republican side, the designation effect observed in May 2025 around Bruno Retailleau seems to be waning: he would no longer garner more than 9% to 13% of voting intentions. He would nevertheless maintain a 2-point lead over Gabriel Attal, 6 points over Gérald Darmanin and 10 points over François Bayrou.
